Secondary watch prices rise 1.2% in the third quarter as Rolex trails Patek and Lange
The secondary watch market rose again in the third quarter of 2026, but the gains were smaller and more uneven than in the first half of the year.
The Morgan Stanley and WatchCharts third-quarter report, summarised by Velociphile on 15 October 2026, puts the WatchCharts Overall Market tracker up 1.2% for the three months to 30 September. That follows gains of 2.1% in the second quarter and 2.4% in the first, making it the fifth consecutive quarterly rise above 1% but the weakest since the second quarter of 2025.
A broader recovery, at a slower pace
The index is now 8.3% higher than a year earlier, although it remains roughly 29% below its April 2022 peak. The recovery is also spreading: 28 of the 35 tracked brands rose in the quarter, against 27 in the previous three months. All three listed luxury groups gained, with Richemont up 2.3%, Swatch Group up 1.1% and LVMH up 0.6%.
That broad picture matters more than the headline number. A market that is rising across most brands is healthier than one carried by two or three favourites, even when the pace is slower. But the average also conceals a wide spread between brands, and between references within the same collection.
Rolex lags while Patek Philippe and Lange lead
Rolex was among the laggards. The brand rose 0.5% in the quarter, while Rolex SA — which includes Tudor — rose 0.6%. Patek Philippe gained 2.6%, Audemars Piguet 1.2%, A. Lange & Söhne 4.4% and Vacheron Constantin 3.1%, according to the figures reported by Buying Time on 16 October 2026.
Value retention improved for seven of the eight brands followed in detail. Part of that improvement was arithmetic rather than a surge in demand: secondary prices rose while official retail prices were unchanged for seven of the eight, with IWC the exception. In other words, the gap between retail and resale narrowed because the market moved, not because the brands raised prices again.
For owners, the lesson is that a brand-level index is not a valuation. A quarterly gain of 0.5% at Rolex does not mean every Submariner, Datejust or Daytona moved by the same amount. Condition, age, box and papers, service history and the specific reference still decide what a watch is worth.
More stock, more choice and a growing certified channel
Supply is the other side of the story. Inventory is expanding, particularly among the largest brands, which gives buyers more examples to compare and sellers more competition. That can restrain prices even while the index is positive, because a buyer with several comparable watches in front of them is less likely to accept the first asking price.
Rolex Certified Pre-Owned illustrates the split. Buying Time reports that the programme generated an estimated US$229 million in the third quarter, up 61% year on year and 30% on the previous quarter, on about 10,300 watches. Nine-month sales were roughly US$550 million; a similar fourth quarter would put the full year near US$780 million, with the billion-dollar mark a possible 2027 milestone. The retailer network has reached 167, while the premium over non-certified examples has narrowed to about 23%.
That is a business built on confidence and convenience as much as on scarcity. Buyers are paying for authentication, a retail setting and a warranty, but they are also comparing prices more carefully than they did during the pandemic boom.
For buyers, the practical approach is to treat the index as context, not a price guide. Compare the exact reference, ask for service records and check what similar examples are actually selling for. For sellers, the market is still rising, but not uniformly: a Rolex at 0.5% is broadly flat, while Patek Philippe, Lange and Vacheron Constantin have more momentum. A valuation before you list is still the cheapest way to avoid pricing a watch on last year's assumptions.
Sources
- Velociphile — The Watch Market Is Recovering. Unfortunately, the Watches Are Still There. (15 October 2026) — velociphile.substack.com/p/the-watch-market-is-recovering-unfortunately
- Buying Time — Issue #270 | Buying Time - October 16, 2026 — www.buyingtimenews.com/p/issue-270-buying-time-october-16
- WatchCharts — WatchCharts Overall Market Index — watchcharts.com/watches/price_index
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